AI demand extends RAM shortage to 2028

Summary

Demand for AI infrastructure is causing a severe shortage in DRAM and HBM. Micron and Samsung predict this situation will last until 2028. Micron has already sold its entire 2027 production capacity to buyers like Nvidia, OpenAI, and Microsoft at high prices.

Why it matters

Because HBM production consumes approximately three times more wafer capacity than standard DDR5, memory is becoming the limiting factor in scaling AI rather than GPUs. This bottleneck is also being felt in consumer prices. Samsung increased the price of the Galaxy S26 in the US. Server module prices have quintupled in one year. This situation may continue to inflate computer and phone costs until 2027.

Highlights

• Micron withdrew from the consumer market to dedicate advanced production entirely to data centers and closed the Crucial brand.
• New fabs will come online between late 2028 and 2030. Therefore, no significant supply relief is expected in the near term.
• The three manufacturers control approximately 88% of global HBM production. This situation intensifies the bottleneck.

Critical take

The article's final section presents Linux as a 'sensible' consumer solution, which appears more like an editorial defense than an analysis. The piece was published on a developer forum site. The content relies largely on earnings reports and a few tweets. No independent sources were used. Therefore, the 2028 timeline remains an unverified corporate statement rather than a validated forecast.